When the NFL preseason begins, the excitement begins to grow. It’s still NFL football even though it’s not the crisp, action-packed football we’re used to watching in the fall and winter.
That offers you the chance to wager on the NFL at some of our top-rated NFL betting sites.
Preseason betting differs greatly from regular season betting, much like watching football in the off-season differs from regular season football. Preseason games are exhibitions that have no bearing on the rankings, making them riskier for bettors. Instead of winning these glorified scrimmages, most teams are more concerned about gaining some reps in and avoiding injuries.
Nevertheless, following a six-month break, returning to football during the preseason may be fun. If you choose your positions well, it is also feasible to make money betting on preseason games.
In considering that, here are a few of our top NFL preseason betting picks.
Keep An Eye on the News Cycle
Keeping up with the news and taking advantage of changes in NFL preseason betting odds is another method to gain an advantage.
Preseason is a time when information about players and tactics can be hard to come by, which occasionally results in bookmakers receiving information ahead of the general public. Because of this, it may be beneficial to jump on a particular line when information surfaces before sportsbooks and the general public do. But because of breaking news, bookmakers penalize players who routinely beat line fluctuations.
The 2022 Hall of Fame Game is one instance of news affecting a line. In a game where no other Raiders starter saw action, Josh Jacobs, the starting running back for the Las Vegas Raiders, for some reason played the whole first half.
Vegas easily covered the -2.5 line despite Jacobs only managing 30 yards of total offense in the first half. The team won by 16 points.
To better assess their quarterbacks, teams in a quarterback competition should also anticipate a more pass-heavy offense.
You should make every effort to take advantage of the fact that, within reason, the preseason is one of the few occasions when sportsbooks and gamblers are in agreement on information. Choose your locations wisely, as excessive use of them could result in a book flagging your account.
Aim for a minimum of 37 when placing bets
When it comes to betting preseason totals, 37 points is a certain boundary for reasons that are obscure.
In games with a projected total under 37 points, the during has hit at a 58.7% percentage (277-195) during the last 13 years. Conversely, in games where the expected total was more than 37 points, the Under hit at a 56.2% percentage (527-410).
As totals that closed at 37 and 37.5 saw the Over receive an average of 60 to 65% of the total handle, according to Action Network, bettors tended to bet the Over regardless. Therefore, it can be lucrative to fade the public and bet the Under larger totals.
Regular season totals are usually in the 40s, so while it may be tempting to bet the Over blindly on relatively low totals during the preseason, it’s usually best to go under.
Check out Who’s Playing (And the duration)
This is something you should always do before placing a bet, but it’s crucial during the preseason as teams almost seldom use their whole starting lineup, particularly in Week 1. Stars rarely, if at all, play because teams don’t want to take the chance of losing important players to injuries during pointless contests.
Aaron Rodgers, for instance, hasn’t participated in a preseason game since 2018.
The starters hardly ever play the entire game, even when they do suit up. There will be a lot of backup players and guys who might not make the final roster because most just play a few series and leave the game by halftime.
Preseason games can often be unpredictable, particularly in the second half. It is wiser to place first-half bets rather than full-game bets if a team is playing its starters.
Points Aren’t Always Equitable for Beginners
The preseason’s second week has evolved into the de facto “dress rehearsal week,” with clubs using their starters for the majority, if not all, of the first half of the season since the NFL reduced the number of preseason games from four to three in 2021.
However, as Unders have struck at a 55% rate (26-21-1) in Week 2 throughout that time, the shift hasn’t produced high-scoring games. Additionally, it hasn’t given favorites the upper hand; over the same span in Week 2, underdogs have covered 55% of the time.
Beginners don’t always play at their best or put up their best effort when they are on the field. During preseason games, offenses can appear unpolished as teams experiment with new plays and player integration. In order to reduce the danger of injuries and save their finest plays for the regular season, teams also employ conservative offenses during the preseason.
In close games, bet on the underdog.
Preseason games are effectively toss-ups because star players are out for much of the season. As a result, placing an underdog wager might be a winning tactic in close games.
When preseason lines are released, it’s wise to take into consideration minor underdogs because since 2015, 1-to-3-point underdogs have gone 158-110 (59%) against the spread.
To optimize your potential profit, if you have registered with various sportsbooks, make sure to compare the finest NFL preseason betting odds before making your wager.
