It can be frustrating for a bettor who thinks they have done everything right and still has a 2-3 combo that is unsuccessful. This frustration often arises because the individual picks within the combo seem highly likely to succeed.
The problem is that combos do not reflect the probability of each individual pick, but of the 2-3 picks together. Put simply, combining picks means there are more ways a ticket can fail, and that random variance is more important.
To better understand this, let’s examine how probability works in sports markets. A basic bet at odds of 2.00 reflects an implied probability of 0.5 or 50%. Odds of 1.50 reflect a probability of 0.666 or 67%. The lower the odds, the higher the expected probability. Probability is also at the forefront of the more recently popular prediction market sports trades; contracts trade at between $0 and $1. A contract trading at $0.70 implies a 70% probability. Buyers are those who believe the contract is undervalued and see the potential to profit.
Now, let’s take the topic of probability and relate it to a 2-3 combo. A bettor could choose three picks that are all 80% likely. This would seem to make each pick very safe. However, to understand the chance of success with the entire bet, all three percentages must be combined as follows:
0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.512
This results in a combined 51.2% chance of winning, which can be seen as less of a “sure thing.”
There are other factors that can cause a combo wager to fail. To begin with, a high probability pick is not the same as success being guaranteed. Any team can suffer player injuries or an unexpected dismissal that impacts the result. Many combo bets are also correlated, so they can be taken down by a single factor. For example, a bettor may choose the favorites to win by over 2.5 goals, and the main striker to score. If the game turns into a defensive battle, with midfield dominance, the entire combo can fail.
It’s also essential to remember that variance will always have an impact at some point. This is the natural short-term randomness in sports betting that causes what is statistically expected to happen to turn into a completely different outcome. For parlays, this is even more of an issue because a miss on one pick brings the entire bet down.
Despite the fact that any 2-3 combo can fail, there are still legitimate advantages to this type of bet when used wisely. The main benefits include higher returns without extreme risk when selecting two or three strong favorites, reduced risk by avoiding concentration on a single event or outcome, and additional entertainment within the already beneficial activity of watching live sport.
Bettors who choose to place smaller stakes on a combo rather than wagering a large amount on a favorite may also find they manage their bankroll more efficiently in the longer term, although any growth is likely to be moderate.
Overall, bettors who opt for 2-3 combos do so because they represent a good middle ground between low-return singles and unstable large accumulators. Generally, 2-3 combos provide decent odds, a low level of complexity, and a tolerable level of variance.
However, it’s worth remembering that they should never be referred to as “sure odds,” because there is never certainty due to the way probabilities work across 2-3 picks, the nature of randomness, and that it’s always possible for a favorite to lose.
