Understanding How Over/Under Predictions Works in Sports Betting

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Understanding How Over/Under Predictions Works in Sports Betting
Understanding How Over/Under Predictions Works in Sports Betting

One of the most common ways to gamble on sports is over/under. Using examples from the NFL, NBA, and other sports, we break down how betting on the total works in detail!

What does the term “over/under” signify in betting?

You can wager on whether the total score will be greater or lower than the oddsmakers’ anticipated total by using the Over/Under option.

If you think the anticipated number of points will be exceeded, you should wager on the Over. Bet the Under if you think the final score will be lower than the predicted total.

Along with the moneyline and point spread, over/under betting, also known as totals betting, is one of the most well-liked choices for sports gamblers.

There is no connection between total bets and the game’s outcome; they are just based on the number of points scored. Nearly all sports, including college football, NBA, MLB, NFL, and NCAA basketball, include over/under betting.

Understanding Over/Under Betting

The Over/Under for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl IV was 53 points based on these odds. Juice, commonly referred to as vig, is the cost of putting that wager on each side of the total, the Over and Under. In order to win $100 when betting on the Over or the Under, you would need to wager $110 because the vig for most Over/Under bets is -110 on each side.

With 51 points scored by both sides in the end, Kansas City prevailed 31–20 in Super Bowl LIV. Thus, the expected total of 53 points was not met by the Super Bowl. Bettor wins came from those who wagered on the Under 53, while wagers on the Over 53 were lost.

How to Place an Over/Under Bet

Before placing an Over/Under wager, you should determine whether the total score will exceed or fall short of the oddsmakers’ estimate and whether it is better to place your wager now or later as the Over/Under may fluctuate. Then, you should be aware of the vig/juice on the total as well as your potential winnings.

For the Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers game, the total is set at 222.5 points, while the odds on both the Over and Under are set at -110.

When determining Over/Under totals, oddsmakers frequently employ half points, so there is no guarantee that the final score will fall exactly on the predicted total.

A wager on the Over would result in a prediction of 223 points or more, while a wager on the Under would result in a prediction of 222 points or less.

In terms of MLB betting, the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals game has a total of 7.5 runs set. But the Under is fixed at +100 or even money, and the Over has a vig of -120.

There is a chance that the final score will include eight runs or more, which could account for this discrepancy in the vig. As bookmakers try to lure bets on the Under at the lower vig to balance the money on either side, it might also represent the amount of money placed already on the Over.

In order to earn $100, you would need to stake $120 in order to wager on the Over, which is your prediction of eight runs or more. If you spent $100 and chose to bet on the Under, you would be making a prediction of seven runs or fewer.

What is the payout for an over/under bet?

A vig of -110 is typically found on both the Over and Under in Over/Under wagers. It is sometimes referred to as a flat rate. In other words, you have to bet $110 for every $100 you hope to win, which translates to 91 cents paid out for every $1 wagered.

To encourage more money to be gambled on one side, sportsbooks may change the vig on the Over/Under. They may alter the vig to Over 53 (-115)/Under 53 (-105) if a book has collected a large amount of money on the Over 53 (-110) and a small amount on the Under 53 (-110).

This incentivizes action on the Under, balancing the money staked on either side of the Over/Under and guaranteeing a profit for the sportsbook regardless of the outcome. It also provides the Under a better payout (95 cents for every $1 gambled on Under compared to 87 cents on every $1 risked on Over).

Utilize our betting calculator for Over/Under to determine the potential winnings from your totals wager.

How is the Over/Under bet calculated?

Beyond the obvious offensive and defensive statistics of the participating teams, oddsmakers take into account a wide range of criteria when determining the Over/Under total.

Football and baseball are two outdoor games where weather can have a big impact on score output. The most influential weather factor is wind. Oddsmakers will also take into account scheduling, home and away outcomes, coaching plans, injuries, lineups, and results when determining Over/Under odds.

The total can also be determined by the amount of money wagered on the Over or the Under. Sportsbooks may raise the total to encourage betting on the Under if more money is being gambled on the Over. Sportsbooks may lower the total to attract bettors on the Over if more money is being gambled on the Under.

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